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Housing Market

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WASHINGTON, April 16 - Builders continued to reduce the pace of new-home construction in March amidst ongoing erosion in the overall economy and credit markets, according to the latest figures released today by the U.S. Commerce Department. Total housing starts fell nearly 12 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000 units for the month, while single-family starts fell 5.7 percent to a rate of 680,000 units.

“Builders are dramatically limiting starts of new homes in an environment of weak sales and heavy supply, ratcheting down production of single-family units to its slowest pace in 17 years,” noted NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. “We’re doing everything in our power to bring the supply and demand equation back into balance and restore housing to its rightful place as an engine of economic growth. But now that we are in a genuine economic recession, there’s no question that more needs to be done at the federal level to support housing, shore up consumer confidence and limit the degree and duration of the economic contraction.”

“The Senate has done a fine job already in moving forward with beneficial legislation, and we applaud its efforts to this point,” added Dunn. “We urge the House to do the same thing and quickly advance a bill that can be reconciled with the Senate’s version and promptly sent to the President’s desk. Now is the time, during the spring home buying season, to implement measures that will have the greatest positive effect on housing and the economy.”

“Builders in the field continue to report that prospective buyers are visiting their model homes, but most are either unwilling or unable to go forward with a purchase given the downward trends in employment and home values as well as the tightening of mortgage credit conditions,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.

“It stands to reason that incentives such as a temporary home buyer tax credit and improvements to the housing finance system would help boost consumer confidence in the market and have a significant stimulative effect that could arrest housing’s heavy drag on economic growth. Such measures, combined with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive moves to lower interest rates and improve the functioning of financial markets, definitely would have substantial beneficial effects on the overall economy.”

The single-family side of the housing market continued to display persistent and sizeable declines in both new-home starts and permits for new construction in March, with starts down 5.7 percent to 680,000 units and permits down 6.2 percent to 606,000 units. Meanwhile, the multifamily side continued to display extreme month-to-month volatility in starts and permits, with 24.6 percent and 5 percent declines, respectively.

Regionally, housing starts were down across the board in March, with an 8.5 percent decline registered in the Northeast, a 21.4 percent decline in the Midwest, a 12.6 percent decline in the South and a 5.7 percent decline in the West. Permit issuance was mixed by region, with gains of 3.8 percent and 0.4 percent registered for the Northeast and South, respectively, and declines of 10.6 percent and 20 percent registered for the Midwest and West, respectively.

WASHINGTON, April 15 - The deepening slump in the nation’s housing markets has seriously eroded consumer sentiment and pushed the economy into a mild recession, according to the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

“The worse-than-anticipated housing downturn, combined with systematic weakening of the labor market and rapidly rising energy and food prices, has taken a heavy toll on American consumers,” said NAHB’s David Seiders. “It’s now clear that we have entered what we anticipate will be a mild recession, running through the first half of this year, and there are substantial downside risks to this economic scenario.”

To guard against a longer and deeper downturn, Seiders said that Congress should take immediate steps to stimulate the economy through actions specifically targeted at improving the ailing housing market — such as a temporary home buyer tax credit, modernization of the Federal Housing Administration and oversight reform for the housing-related government sponsored enterprises.

“Stopping the downward trend in housing prices is key to bolstering consumer confidence as well as mortgage credit quality, and a temporary home buyer tax credit is the best way to do that,” he noted.

Given the ongoing erosion in housing finance markets and buyer demand, Seiders has adjusted NAHB’s official housing forecast to indicate continuing downward movement in housing starts through the end of 2008, bringing the decline for the year to 30 percent. A month ago, Seiders expected housing starts to bottom out in the third quarter, with a 27 percent decline for 2008.

“This change in our forecast indicates that, barring immediate action by Congress to stimulate housing and the economy, the housing sector will continue to be a serious drag on economic growth until the beginning of 2009,” Seiders said.

“Stimulus bills recently passed in the Senate and the House Ways and Means Committee are welcome steps in the right direction. This is one instance where prompt and appropriate efforts by the nation’s lawmakers could make a significant difference in limiting the depth and duration of the economic downturn.”